Argonautica

Professional investors can review published thought leadership and market updates from the Argonaut Investment Team.

51 posts found by Barry Norris

‘The cruellest month’

 “April is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain” TS Eliot, The Waste Land, 1922    “October is the cruellest month, longs are going down on good numbers, shorts are going up on profit warnings, it’s getting darker outside with cold rain” BJ Norris, Argonautica Blog, 2018     Most investors will have been frustrated by the apparent cruelty of the stock market during October. Glamourous growth stocks got crushed.…

‘Stock picking Alpha and the fear of unknown unknowns’

“As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know.” Donald Rumsfeld, former US Secretary of Defense (2002) [1]    During market dislocations it is common to witness rapid price falls on individual stocks that appear indiscriminate in nature and often contrary to the positive rationale which fundamental…

‘Main Street beating Wall Street should be just fine for oil stocks’

The rise in the price of oil, with a barrel of Brent crude now back at a five year high of $85, has almost gone unnoticed this year in comparison with US monetary policy, trade wars and the stock market hegemony of the FAANGS. We believe that the causes of oil’s recovery have been multi-faceted, likely to endure for some time and that the energy sector currently offers some of the best opportunities in global stock markets. Moreover, in a stock market which is now wary of mature bull markets and…

‘Stinky Steinhoff and the Secret Sauce of Stellenbosch’

Steinhoff International, a major global retail conglomerate, based in Stellenbosch, South Africa but with its main listing in Germany, is in trouble. On Wednesday 6th December, CEO and major shareholder, Markus Jooste, resigned amid accounting irregularities, ongoing litigation and possible criminal charges, replaced by his Afrikaaner friend and Steinhoff’s biggest shareholder Christo Wiese[1]. Over the week the company has lost 90% of its previous €14bn[2] market capitalisation with the share price…

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