Argonautica

Professional investors can review published thought leadership and market updates from the Argonaut Investment Team.

‘The Argonaut 1970’s Redux “Stockumentary”’

The Argonaut 1970’s Redux “Stockumentary”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has hastened the new stagflationary era: accelerating deglobalisation and highlighting the imprudent lack of fossil fuel investment by the West. The Bank of England has just hiked interest rates into a forecast recession. Recent attempts from the Federal Reserve to calm inflationary fears through “front-end loaded” rate hikes have served only to underline the futility of attempting to manage global supply shocks with aggregate demand tools. Investors are losing confidence in financial assets as a store of wealth. The 1970’s redux has now arrived.

Last October – with stock markets at all-time highs - we highlighted the risk that the roaring ‘20’s would give way to a ‘70’s stagflation https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/articles/2021/10/06/from-the-roaring-20s-to-70s-stagflation-redux/:that there would be a series of worsening supply shocks for which financial markets were ill prepared and central banks impotent to resolve. After more than a decade long boom in long duration equities and bonds, few investors had any hedge for a Seventies redux https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/articles/2021/10/26/drowning-in-a-bubble-bath/ where wealth rather than wages would be the financial patsy. We had also previously warned that contrary to the prevailing consensus we were about to enter a new macro regime where “thinking long-term” and “investing in innovation” would be financially disastrous https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/articles/2021/05/10/think-short-term/.

But what were the 1970’s really like for investors? And what lessons can we learn for investing today? Argonaut now presents our 24-minute original “Stockumentary” on “The 1970’s Redux”: 

  1. Do you remember the 1970’s? https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=7
  2. The bull market in gold https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=51
  3. The bull market in oil https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=162
  4. Inflation and interest rates https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=218
  5. Stock markets in the Seventies https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=280
  6. Inflation redux https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=395
  7. De-globalisation https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=420
  8. De-carbonisation https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=682
  9. Central bank money printing https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=799
  10. The politics of inflation https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=1034
  11. Investing lessons from the ‘70’s https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=1143
  12. New rules, new strategies https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=1217

 

Barry Norris
CEO and Fund Manager
Argonaut Capital 

Investing in the Free World