Argonautica

Professional investors can review published thought leadership and market updates from the Argonaut Investment Team.

10 posts found for 2020

‘The expert opinion of the shaman and the caveman’s search for truth’

Let us return once again to the Stone Age.1 Our caveman is now seven weeks into his lockdown in his limestone cave. His immediate priority to provide enough meat and fire for his family did not seem to be shared by the rest of the tribe, which was now preoccupied with settling old scores. Some were saying that the elders had not protected the tribe well-enough from the previously unknown menace. Those who had been defeated at the last popular council now said the tribe should stay in the caves indefinitely:…

‘Herd Immunity’: how the virus will change the fund management industry

“A bull market for assets but not for asset managers”, is how we might look back at the past few years. The active fund management industry has been in trouble, caught in a pincer movement of pressure on fees and higher regulatory costs. Moreover, the bull market in assets has been concentrated in the US and specifically its technology stocks. As investors could just access beta to this phenomenon more cheaply through passive products, they did not need active managers who charged a higher fee but…

‘The rational risk-taking of the restless caveman’

Let us return to the Stone Age.1 For the past few weeks our Neanderthal ancestor has stayed almost exclusively within the safety of his modest limestone cave. Against his natural libertarian instincts our caveman reluctantly agreed to assiduously limit his outdoor activity to brief forages for wood and fresh water. The tribal elders insisted on these rules: they argued that it would buy time for the community to better understand the unfamiliar fresh external threat. But if they now knew more, this…

‘Only a perma-bear brings a knife to a bazooka fight’

“We already know that” says my son as I explain we are about to witness the destruction of economic activity and levels of unemployment (furlough aside) not previously seen since the Great Depression. He is not worried by the lack of an immediate cure or vaccine for the virus, which may mutate and subsequently return. He responds with glee at the prospect of the “lock down” extending for months, denying him school for the summer term. When I tell him that the steepest share price falls since the…

View more