Argonautica

Professional investors can review published thought leadership and market updates from the Argonaut Investment Team.

9 posts found for 2012

‘Reminiscences on a decade as a Euro Stock Operator’

Exactly a decade ago, I began managing a European equity fund. My core belief has always been to look for stocks with superior earnings momentum: that is to identify and invest in stocks that I thought could earn higher profits than the market was anticipating and at the same time avoid those that would be unable to deliver their forecast profitability. Although over the last ten years I made numerous mistakes, learnt lessons and refined my process, sticking to this simple strategy has allowed me…

‘Access to capital and the uncommon stock – the true driver of the “nifty fifty” new stock market cycle’

Despite central bank money printing and near to zero interest rates capital remains difficult to access for most companies. This is not, however, true for every company. For a small number of companies – we shall call them uncommon stocks - capital has never been cheaper or more widely available. This contrast between companies that have access to capital and those who do not is in our view perhaps the single most important theme of this new economic and stock market cycle. Investing in those companies…

‘Banks: Europe’s highest growth sector?’

As we noted in a blog earlier this week European analysts currently see the Banks sector as delivering the strongest growth in corporate earnings in 2013. This follows a fall in bank profits of nearly 19% this year. Banks are expected to deliver 28% profit growth in 2013 compared with the forecast of 12% growth for market earnings1. Given that this time last year the same analysts were forecasting 21% growth in bank profits for 2012 (which has since been proven to be 39% too high) it would be easy…

‘EADS/BAE - an accidental victory for shareholders’

EADS and BAE management declared war on their shareholders with their proposed merger. With only a few shareholders having fired warning shots, Enders and  King today surrendered in no man’s land having had no battle-plan to negotiate  the minefield of national security interests that lay between them and their quarry. Today’s decision to terminate merger talks between EADS and BAE is a triumph for common sense and shareholder value. Having sunk almost €30bn into new Airbus plane projects that are…

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