Argonautica

Professional investors can review published thought leadership and market updates from the Argonaut Investment Team.

3 posts found for 2010

‘The new “money illusion” and its implications for wealth management’

“The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows from basic economic reasoning. A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject's oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within…

‘Debt, disunity, default, double dip, deflation and depression?’

I have lost count of the number of newspaper articles over recent weeks predicting the imminent break-up of the Euro, a default by at least Greece, maybe Portugal, Ireland and Spain as well, the collapse of the European banking system and as a result, a “double dip” economic recession from which there may be no obvious way out. Often accompanied by barely concealed glee, we are told that the “melt-down” in the Euro (to levels still slightly above where the currency launched in 1999 against the US…

‘A butterfly flaps its wings in Athens and is heard in Beijing’

Industry investment research is often more useful in defining what assumptions are already factored into share prices than highlighting what is likely to move them going forward. Much of what passes for “analysis” in the investment industry is simply the extrapolation of current trends into perpetuity. So it should come as no surprise that market pundits, strategists and other investment operators nearly all agree that 2010 will look very similar to most of the years from the last decade: the global…