Argonautica

Professional investors can review published thought leadership and market updates from the Argonaut Investment Team.

‘Cyclical Rotation and the Pfizer Vaccine’

The size of the style risk move. Monday’s announcement of a “90% efficacious” vaccine from the Pfizer/BioNTech was the catalyst for the biggest 1-day mean reversion in growth vs value since 2009: The growth/value pair trade in Europe delivered (-16%) in a single day (Nov 9th) and another (-7%) the following day (Nov 10th); Monday’s move -16% for the style beta (-22% in the US) was the biggest on record (in 11 years);

‘Dud COVID vaccines are no silver bullet’

Vaccine jabs could be widely available by the New Year as - even though blinded Phase 3 trials are yet to read out - we are told that the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine candidate will file for regulatory approval in November with Moderna to follow in December. Much of the news coverage has focused on the timing of regulatory approval, dose availability, and the side-effect profile of COVID vaccine candidates. Whilst these are important, there is a more fundamental question: is there a mismatch between public expectations and what vaccine developers define as clinical “success”?

‘Great Expectations for vaccines threaten more Hard Times’

The Vaccine Swindle – Part 2: There is a widespread and dangerous assumption that a return to normality will only be possible with - and will immediately follow - the approval of a SARS-2/COVID vaccine. Economic destruction from needless lockdowns was a direct consequence of the initial misdiagnosis of COVID as a second “Spanish Flu”. Now in the absence of a credible escape route from their COVID infection suppression policy, the same blundering governments - led by the wrong scientific advisors - look to a vaccine as an alluring overnight solution.

‘The biggest fraud: Part 3 – Investment Implications’

Following unprecedented interest in our previous research on policy error in response to the coronavirus “The biggest fraud: Part 1 – The “hocus” science behind lockdown” and “The biggest fraud: Part 2 – The vaccine swindle” we now publish video blogs on Part 1 and Part 2. Furthermore, we now introduce new material “The biggest fraud: Part 3 – Investment Implications”. We also publish 9 2-minute easily digestible video blogs summarising our views on specific issues. We stand accused of being “armchair…

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