Argonautica

Professional investors can review published thought leadership and market updates from the Argonaut Investment Team.

23 posts found by Greg Bennett

‘European earnings outlook – more positive than you might expect...’

For European earnings, 2017 is so far panning out to be unusual - unusual because earnings are being upgraded for the market as a whole and for every sector within it. Whilst market commentators and investors continue to fret over macro and political concerns for Europe, the prospects for European corporate earnings are steadily improving. The chart below depicts the earnings revisions for the market as at the end of February over the last five years as well as this year - 2017 clearly stands out. Figure…

‘Anatomy of the European Banks Rout’

European bank stocks have collapsed so far this year whilst their credit default swaps (CDS) have risen rapidly. Surely the credit and equity markets are telling us something? – Europe’s nascent economic recovery is over? Negative rates are killing net interest margins? They don’t have enough capital?…the list goes on. Whilst all the above cannot be ignored and investors need to select bank stocks carefully, we think the wholesale selling pressure of bank stocks may have an altogether different origin…

‘Statoil: A Reckless and Naïve Dividend Policy?’

Amongst European oil majors Statoil’s profits are in our view almost uniquely geared to the price of crude given its lack of significant downstream assets and exposure to counter cyclical refining profits. Moreover, its upstream assets have historically been exposed to high-tax production in the Norwegian continental shelf, with the company’s expansionary capital expenditure focused in North American shale oil and gas production, all of which is now loss-making. Unbelievably, while oil is down 70%…

‘Christmas Quiz 2015’

Our final blog this year is our annual Christmas Quiz – twelve questions to take your mind off the daily market gyrations as we close out the year. We hope you enjoy the quiz and from all at Argonaut we wish you a merry Christmas and Happy New Year. (The answers can be found at the end) 1. UK brick inventories are at levels not seen since the 1980’s. With bricks being the cladding of choice for house construction in the UK, this has meant double-digit price increases for bricks in each of the last…

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